It is estimated that U.S. ethanol consumption is likely to surge from 4 billion gallons to 8 billion gallons over the period of 2006–12. E85, the 85% ethanol blend, is already offered at 556 U.S. gas stations, mostly in corn-growing states. An increasing number of car models are ofering the ability to use an ethanol/traditional gasoline flexible fuel combination. The powerful farm lobby and existing U.S. agricultural subsidies also seem likely to ensure ethanol growth. There is also a huge build-out in ethanol capacity over the net few years, from 3.6 billion gallons to 6.4 billion. The issue of national security over the dependence on Middle Eastern oil is likely to play a critical role in ethanol growth that should not be understated. Curently, the U.S. imports roughly 6% of its gasoline usage.
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 2005 U.S. Gasoline Market - 140 billion gallons
2005 U.S. Ethanol Market - 4 billion gallons
Ethanol comprised 3% of U.S. gasoline market
Renewable Fule Standard will increase to 7.5 billion by 2012 - still only 5% of gasoline market
Ethanol market has room to grow to 16 billion gallons to reach optimal blend of 10% |
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Today there are more than 95 ethanol plants across the country.
Brazil has “scored the first goal” in ethanol.
Brazil stands out as a model for ethanol production and usage, with more than 20% of its transport fuel market derived from ethanol, versus a global average of just 1%. Brazil is the clear per-capita leader in the flexible fuel vehicle market: more than half of all new cars sold there are FFVs. Brazil is also the world leader in ethanol use as a motor fuel: ethanol represents 40 percent of all fuel used in the country’s cars.
SOURCE: Citigroup Research & ACE Ethanol
